The best semi-bluff (or the one with the best chance of winning the pot) is the flush draw semi-bluff. You raise with Ah-Qh, and the flop comes 3d-5h-9h. With two overcards and a flush draw, you can assume you have 15 outs out of the 47 remaining cards, making you 60% to hit with two cards to come. The problem is, you don’t have a hand yet. But since you might have a hand by the end, and you might not need a hand to win the pot, you might as well bet anyway. That’s the idea behind a semi-bluff.
There are no real required conditions to semi-bluff. All you need is a draw and a betting arm, but it can be boiled down to a science. What follows is an in-depth look at how to bet your flush draw on the respective streets and when to lay off and take a free card. I’ll discuss two different types of flush draw, the two-down and three-down types. Finally, I’ll discuss the betting once you have hit your flush.
First of all, I would suggest that you almost always semi-bluff with a two-down flush draw (when you have two suited cards in your hand along with two matching suited cards on the board). It accomplishes two goals in approximately equal proportions: getting money into the pot for when you hit your draw, and taking down the pot when your opponents fold to your semi-bluff. It is not well-advised to semi-bluff into more than 3 players because your chances of getting raised and isolated are much more present. When you do semi-bluff, your bet should be about half the pot, a reasonable bet. Remember that semi-bluffing is a combination of bluffing and value betting.
When you miss on fourth street, it’s usually a good idea to check and see what your opponents do. If they come out swinging, they usually have a made hand, and you should leave it up to pot odds to determine whether or not to continue with the draw. If they check, they might be on a draw as well, albeit a lesser one than you. However, if you have the feeling that your opponents are fishing, another stab at the pot couldn’t hurt much. If they’re drawing, you’ll almost certainly take it down there.
If the hand makes it to fifth street and you still haven’t hit, your options actually open up a little. You could make a big bet, try a post-oak bluff, check-fold and give up, or even go all-in. This is always a tough situation to be in, because any river card that missed you could have improved your opponent’s hand. Just use your better judgment and if all else fails, lay it down and stop the bleeding.
Now, if you hit your flush on the turn, this creates another odd situation. The natural thing to do is check and let your opponent improve his hand on the river, but two major problems persist: another flush card can hit and make him a higher flush, and if the board pairs you could be up against a full house. A check can also look suspicious to any player not holding a flush, although most of the time that check would mean the player is worried about the flush cards.
Instead, you want to bet for value here. Make it a bet that he can call, but one that will put a dent in the pot, something like one-third to one-half the pot. Stick with my value betting strategy for post-turn play and you’ll get the idea. Now is really not the time to get tricky, except for a check-raise into an opponent that you know will bet.
If you hit on the river, make no special plays. You must bet for value here if you want to make anything on the hand. Hopefully your semi-bluffing has made the pot worth winning even without a call.
A three-down flush draw semi-bluff consists of the board coming three to a suit (let’s say hearts) and you having the highest heart possible. In this situation, you do not semi-bluff without the nut draw. It’s that simple. There’s too good a chance that that one card is out there, so you might as well have it. With the nut draw, you semi-bluff just as you would with a two-down flush draw.
A different situation arises when you have an overpair along with the three-down draw. Say you have Ks-Kc. You’ve raised enough to get heads up with one player. The flop comes
3c-4c-9c. Here you have the second nut flush draw, but you also probably have the best hand with your pair of kings. This really isn’t a semi-bluff at all, but rather a great hand with great outs. You should push accordingly. If he plays back at you, you must assess his strength to determine whether or not you’re currently beat. He could have a set, leaving you with any club to win. He could also have the nut flush already, leaving you almost dead. Finally, he could have the ace of clubs and be putting a semi-bluff on you. Leave this up to judgment, but for the most part, call and see another card.
When you hit your fourth board club to make your nut flush, you should always value bet because your opponent either has a club or he doesn’t, and you won’t get any action if he doesn’t because he’ll notice the four clubs on the board. As a rule, you don’t worry about hands higher than a full house in hold ‘em. If there are four cards to a straight flush on the board, you should still assume you have the best hand unless you sense something very tricky about your opponent’s play. Use common sense and analyze the betting pattern to determine if the cards that fit the straight flush are possibilities in his holding. Usually, they won’t be.
Semi-bluffing with a flush draw is a strong play that has serious positive expectancy and always offers delicious implied odds. Remember your odds of hitting (9/47 with two cards to come and 9/46 with one card to come, or about 36% and 18%) and keep your opponents guessing.
By: Jordy Pujol
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